In a recent series of posts on X, George Hotz, a figure renowned for his contributions to hacking and autonomous driving technology, provided a sobering perspective on the state of autonomous vehicles. Contrary to beliefs held firmly by Tesla and, of course, Elon Musk, Hotz suggests that full autonomy remains a distant goal, potentially over a decade away. This stance is a departure from the optimistic timelines often presented by major players in the AV industry.
The Path to Full Autonomy: A Decade of Development
Hotz acknowledges that while significant milestones will mark the journey to full autonomy, the ultimate goal remains elusive. The distinction between a vehicle's ability to predict and to act autonomously in a loop is vast. Hotz emphasizes that a fully autonomous car must exhibit "agentic behavior" far beyond anything currently demonstrated by existing technologies.
We'll get many useful intermediates on the path to full autonomy in the next 10 years, but the difference between predicting and acting in loop is huge.
— George Hotz 🌑 (@realGeorgeHotz) February 13, 2024
A fully autonomous car is an agent so far beyond any agentic behavior I have seen to date. Sorry about bruising your hype.
Despite the long road ahead, Hotz is optimistic about the advancements that will emerge in the interim. Technologies allowing "eyes off" driving on highways could become available within the next decade. These limited-scope capabilities will pave the way for more sophisticated systems, gradually bridging the gap towards full autonomy.
Tesla's Profitability vs. Waymo's Vision
Hotz's commentary began as a response to contrasting views regarding Tesla and Waymo's progress toward full autonomy. While some believe Tesla is on the brink of achieving fully autonomous driving, others see Waymo as the front-runner. However, Hotz points out a critical distinction: Tesla's profitability as a company compared to Waymo's ongoing financial challenges. This underscores the complexity of achieving autonomy from a technical standpoint and as a viable business model.
Understanding Human Behavior: The Ultimate Challenge
Hotz concurs that autonomous vehicles must understand general human and world behavior to operate without geofencing. This level of comprehension is critical, as it encompasses learning from both on-road experiences and off-road simulations. Developing a "general agent" capable of navigating the myriad scenarios drivers encounter daily is fundamental to achieving true autonomy.
Exactly. Limited scope will be sub 10, like eyes off driving on highway. But a fully autonomous car needs to be a general agent.
— George Hotz 🌑 (@realGeorgeHotz) February 13, 2024
It's a long road, but I think it's sub 20 years for human level agentic AI. I've devoted my life to this problem.
Hotz reveals a deep commitment to solving the autonomous driving puzzle in his discourse. Estimating that human-level agentic AI could be a reality in less than two decades, he shares his dedication to contributing towards this ambitious goal. His perspective not only tempers the prevailing "hype" around autonomy but also highlights the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
