Tesla has officially released its company-compiled analyst delivery consensus for the first quarter of 2026, giving us a clear look at what Wall Street expects when the final numbers drop next week. According to the data, which includes estimates from 23 top-tier firms like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, the bar has been set for both vehicle deliveries and energy storage deployments.
Analysts expect Tesla to deliver 365,645 vehicles in Q1 2026 and deploy 14.4 GWh of energy storage this quarter. While Tesla released these figures, the company made sure to include a disclaimer in its investor relations press release, stating that it "does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts."
Breaking Down the Numbers
If Tesla hits the consensus of 365,645 deliveries, it would represent a healthy year-over-year increase. For comparison, the company reported delivering 336,681 vehicles in Q1 2025. However, it would be a step down from the 418,227 units delivered during the massive holiday push in Q4 2025. This seasonal dip is pretty common in the auto industry, as the first quarter is usually the slowest for new car sales.
The bulk of these deliveries will inevitably be the Model 3 and Model Y, which analysts expect to account for 351,179 units. The "Other Models" category — which includes the Cybertruck, Semi, and the outgoing Model S and X — is expected to chip in about 13,946 units.
Energy Storage: The Rising Star
While vehicle growth is steady, Tesla’s energy division is looking like the real standout. The consensus of 14.4 GWh in energy storage deployments would set a brand-new record for the company, barely beating out the 14.2 GWh reported last quarter.
Tesla Energy is quickly becoming a massive bright spot as the company prepares to start shipping its next-gen Megapack 3 and Megablock products. To support this growth, Tesla recently signed a $4.3 billion deal with LG for a new LFP battery factory in the U.S. This vertical integration is helping Tesla maintain its lead even as the broader EV market faces some headwinds.
Tesla is expected to report its actual final delivery and deployment numbers next week on Thursday, April 2. These reports are usually the biggest catalyst for the stock in any given month, so all eyes will be on whether Elon Musk and his team can beat the "wisdom of the crowd." Stay tuned for our coverage of Tesla’s Q1 delivery numbers when they officially drop.
